Risk Analysis in Project Management

This book will demystify risk analysis and enable decision makers to improve the quality of their judgements by providing more realistic information on which to base decisions. With a practical approach, minimizing jargon, mathematics and academic references, the author provides practitioners with clear descriptions of the nature of risk and risk attitude. He also describes techniques of analysis and assesses their strengths and weaknesses. Case studies and worked examples are used to demonstrate how the techniques may be used to carry out sophisticated risk analyses  on a wide range of projects, including building, real estate, civil engineering and transport planning. Risk Analysis in Project Management provides a framework within which professionals can learn to think systematically about project risks and to develop their own maturity of judgement.

This practical text will enable all professionals involved with construction projects to familiarize themselves quickly with the subject and feel confident about starting systematic risk analysis.

• Chapter 1: Risks and uncertainties in projects
• The purpose of this book
• Risk and uncertainty: definitions
• Risk exposure and risk attitude
• Risk in projects
• An overview of risk management
• Risk analysis: advantages and limitations
  
• Chapter 2: Understanding probabilities
• Introduction
• Probability
• Personal probability
• Joint and compound probability
• Expected monetary value
• Summary
  
• Chapter 3: Forecasting: psychological aspects
• Introduction
• Rules of thumb
• Personal biases
• Reporting biases
• Conclusions
• Summary
  
• Chapter 4: Risk Attitude
  
• Introduction
• Risk attitude in gambling: 'card counting'
• Risk attitude and utility theory
• The Allais paradox
• Risk attitude: practical implications
• Conclusions
• Summary
  
• Chapter 5: Measuring risk exposure: techniques of risk analysis
• Introduction
• Techniques
• Assessment of the techniques
• Summary
  
• Chapter 6: Case histories and worked examples
• Introduction
• The Goh Kee Construction Co.
• A transport infrastructure investment appraisal
• An underground rail tunnel using MERA
• South China land reclamation
• A bridge over the Thames
  
• Chapter 7: Software for risk analysis
• Introduction
• The role of software in risk analysis
• How to approach the software market
• Criteria for the assessment of software
  
• Chapter 8: Good practice in risk management
• Introduction
• Human factors
• Key points of good practice
• Conclusions
  

Is more about risk analysis than project management. Read it.