Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick

Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick is about unlocking big moves — because that is what it takes to beat the odds in business. Anchored in empirical evidence from thousands of companies, it reveals what really matters — and what does not — for exceptional performance. Despite their best intentions, business leaders often get bogged down by human biases and social dynamics that get in the way of clear strategy and strong execution. Just about anyone proposing a strategy comes in with a confident "hockey stick" projection. But how do you distinguish the true breakthrough plans from the fakes — and then carry through the tough choices needed to make good on those promises? Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick provides you with practical advice on how to change these dynamics in your strategy room and make the right strategic moves.

• Introduction: Welcome to the Strategy Room
• You are not alone
• The villain is the social side of strategy
• Where is the outside view?
• Making big moves happen
• The journey ahead of us

1. Games in the Strategy Room — and Why People Play Them
• The social side of strategy, in action
• The dreaded hockey stick
• Can we handle the truth?
• Playing the inside game
• Send in the guru
• The wrong problem for human brains
• The biased mind
• Now add social dynamics to the mix
• When the inside view remains unchecked
2. Opening the Windows of Your Strategy Room
• The right yardstick
• Your business lives on a Power Curve
• What we see on the map
• Why you are where you are
• A fresh perspective with the outside view
3. Hockey Stick Dreams, Hairy Back Realities
• The rise of the hairy back
• Getting to yes
• A haircut from finance
• Bold forecasts
• Timid plans
• Corporate peanut butter
• Shooting for the known
• Real hockey sticks
4. What are the Odds?
• The knowable probability of success
• Flight paths of the upwardly mobile
• A tale of three companies
• Where are the odds in the strategy room?
• The push for certainty
• You are your numbers
5. How to Find the Real Hockey Stick
• What's different this time?
• Check the facts
• The odds that matter: Yours
• The 10 variables that make the difference
• Endowment
• Trends
• Moves
• It all matters
• The mobility dashboard
• Know the odds
• Is that all?
6. The Writing is on the Wall
• A very different conversation about strategy
• Tennis or badminton?
• Industries are escalators
• Change your industry or change industries
• Consider changing locations, too
• Go micro
• The need for privileged insights
• Acting on the writing on the wall
• The four stages of a disruptive trend
• Stage one: Signals amid the noise
• Stage two: Change takes hold
• Stage three: The inevitable transformation
• The hardest stage
• Stage four: Adapting to the new normal
7. Making the Right (big) Moves
• Big moves are essential
• Corning's story
• Programmatic M&A and divestitures
• Active resource re-allocation
• To re-allocate, you have to de-allocate
• Strong capital programs
• Caution on capex
• Distinctive productivity improvement
• Running fast and getting nowhere
• Differentiation improvement
• Are you playing to your advantage?
• Big moves make for good strategy
8. Eight Shifts to Unlock Strategy
• From annual planning … to strategy as a journey
• From getting to "yes" … to debating real alternatives
• From peanut butter … to picking your 1-in-10s
• From approving budgets … to making big moves
• From budget inertia … to liquid resources
• From sandbagging … to open risk portfolios
• From "you are your numbers" … to a holistic performance view
• From long-range planning … to forcing the first step
• The package deal

• Epilogue: New Life in the Strategy Room
• Appendix
• About our sample and method
• A note on economic profit and total returns to shareholders
• How the odds look different from the top or bottom
• Life at the top
• Life at the bottom